New JTL Report and First-of-its-Kind Projection Model Warn of Declining Workforce, Threatening Government’s Infrastructure and Clean Energy Goals.
A new report from JTL, Powering the Future: Securing a Skilled Electrical Workforce to Deliver Growth, reveals a critical shortfall in England’s electrical workforce—one that could jeopardise the delivery of major housing, clean energy, infrastructure and AI projects.
Alongside these findings, the report also launches a first-of-its-kind national projection model for the electrical industry, designed to provide long-term, data-driven insights into workforce size, skill levels, and sector resilience over a 15-year horizon.
Developed by JTL in collaboration with industry partners including the ECA, TESP, JIB, NET, NICEIC and Electrical Safety First, the model captures not only volumes of electricians but also competence within the workforce —defined as “Skilled Person Density”—giving Government and industry leaders a powerful tool for forecasting and planning at a time of rising demand and chronic under-supply.
Together, the report and model present a stark warning: the electrical workforce has already declined by over 26% since 2018, and without urgent action, could shrink by another 32% by 2038, significantly impairing the UK’s ability to meet net-zero goals and national infrastructure targets.
The report reveals that the electrical workforce in England has declined by 26.2% since 2018, falling from 214,200 to just 158,000 electricians in 2024. This trend is expected to continue without targeted intervention, with projections indicating a further decline of up to 32% by 2038, which could result in a critically undersized workforce unable to meet national infrastructure demands. Despite a recent uptick in apprenticeship starts, the current level, approximately 7,540 per year, is insufficient to replace those leaving the workforce. To stabilise the electrical workforce and maintain competence in this safety-critical industry, over 10,500 new apprenticeship starts are required annually. JTL currently supports between a quarter and a third of all new electrical starts, demonstrating its central role in the skills pipeline.